The Cardano exchange rate against the Canadian dollar (ADA CAD) has risen by 14.2% over the past 30 days, from CAD 0.28 to CAD 0.32. The 24-hour trading volume has soared by 48%, exceeding CAD 85 million. This growth is directly related to the improvement in the efficiency of smart contracts after Cardano’s Alonzo hard fork upgrade in February. The daily number of on-chain transactions increased from 53,000 to 68,000, with a growth rate of 28.5% far exceeding the industry average. Meanwhile, the total locked value of DeFi protocols in the Cardano ecosystem increased by 36% to 124 million ADA, and the trading volume of the leading DEX Minswap rose by 41% month-on-month, reflecting the expansion of practical applications. For instance, after the implementation of the EMURGO African agricultural traceability project, the number of active addresses in Cardano Africa increased by 25%, verifying the driving force of physical use cases.
Market sentiment indicators show positive signals. Santiment data indicates that the social discussion heat of ADA increased by 32% month-on-month, and the fear and greed index rose from 45 to 62. According to a report by on-chain analytics firm Messari, the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 ADA increased by 7.4%, and the proportion of large wallets (>1 million ADA) holding reached 73%, indicating an increase in institutional confidence. Referring to the historical pattern of ADA CAD surging by 22% within a month after Vasil’s upgrade in September last year, the current technical optimization, which has increased the network transaction throughput to 257 transactions per second and shortened the block confirmation time to 20 seconds, may trigger a similar market trend. Bloomberg cryptocurrency analysts pointed out that the ADA Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 38 to 58 but was still not overbought, suggesting reasonable upside potential.
At the macroeconomic level, the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5% led to a 2.3% monthly depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, boosting the demand for hedging crypto assets. The weekly order book depth for the Canadian dollar trading pair on the Canadian exchange Bitbuy ADA increased by 19%. The open interest in the derivatives market rose by 31% to $170 million, and the financing rate remained in the positive range of 0.01%, indicating a healthy bullish sentiment. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the historical fluctuation of ADA CAD in the 2022 bear market, which plunged by 78% from a high of 0.6 Canadian dollars. Currently, the 30-day annualized volatility still stands at 65%, higher than Bitcoin’s 47%. The short-term support level for the ada cad exchange rate is at the Fibonacci retracement level of CAD 0.305.
Ecological progress strengthens the fundamentals. Input Output Global recently announced that its partners have increased by 120% over several years, covering government projects in 35 countries. The reserve of the Cardano stablecoin protocol DJED has increased by 40%, while the collateral ratio remains at the 400% safety threshold. At the research level, the Cardano Foundation has collaborated with the University of Zurich to enhance the security parameters of the Ouroboros consensus mechanism, and the annualized return on PoS staking has been stabilized at 3.5%. Compared with the average annual price of CAD 0.25 in 2023, the current price is 15% higher than the 52-week moving average. CMC predicts that it is likely to break through the CAD 0.39 mark in Q4 2024. However, if the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy turns hawkish, it may trigger a 10% to 15% correction risk in the overall crypto market. Investors need to monitor the Canadian CPI data and the movements of on-chain whales, and diversify their portfolios to cope with fluctuations.